UFC 305 Breakdown: Dan Hooker vs. Mateusz Gamrot

The UFC's return to Australia has a number of hugely important fights on the card, including the lightweight matchup of Dan Hooker vs. Mateusz Gamrot. Despite not generating a whole lot of media buzz, both guys have more than what is readily apparent on the line. Because of an injury to lightweight champion Islam Makhachev, an interim belt will be up for grabs later this year at UFC 308, and Arman Tsarukyan's opponent is yet to be chosen. This isn't quite a title eliminator, but a win for Gamrot would almost guarantee him a rematch against Tsarukyan, something both men have expressed interest in. The same can't be said for Hooker, but enticing matchups like a Dustin Poirier rematch or a Justin Gaethje fight become available to him with a victory down under. Two fighters with so much at stake on a massive stage is a recipe for a great fight, regardless of the outcome.

From a glance at the Las Vegas odds for this fight, one might assume that Gamrot is preparing for a walk in the park. The books currently have him as a sizable favorite at -360, almost exclusively because of his ability to wrestle. Gamrot has taken down every single one of his UFC opponents, including standout performances of six and eleven takedowns against Arman Tsarukyan and Rafael Dos Anjos, respectively. Gamrot not only possesses a full repertoire of takedowns but the ability to chain those takedowns together if the first or second attempts fail. His explosiveness on the ground allows for clean transitions during scrambles, leading to nearly inescapable stints of ground control. Similarly to welterweight champ Belal Muhammad, Gamrot excels at controlling the fight and keeping himself safe without pursuing finishes, leading to technically sound, boring fights that almost always end in a victory.

It's been well over a year since Hooker's last fight, a fact that is likely contributing to his status as a huge underdog. Once a top-five lightweight, the Kiwi is known for his stand-and-bang style, putting together a ridiculous highlight reel that often disguises his technical brilliance in the octagon. Over a ten-year UFC career, Hooker has maintained an 80% takedown defense, allowing only two takedowns in his last six fights. Part of that takedown defense comes in the form of violent knees from all angles, a weapon that has ended a number of Hooker's opponents. Gamrot will have to be weary of constant knees up the middle, a factor that will disrupt the timing of his shot and give Hooker a little bit more breathing room. Gamrot also has a poor tendency to dip his head as he enters the pocket to strike, something that will make Hooker's knees even more dangerous. The rest of Hooker's offense will come in the form of front kicks to the body and a creative, powerful boxing attack that will harass Gamrot at all levels. The body attacks will be particularly important, as shots fired at the body will further deter Gamrot from shooting out of fear of dipping headfirst into a punch.

The intangibles in this matchup, just like the striking game, sway in Hooker's favorite. Wrestlers generally prefer to be on the front foot, as moving forward allows for natural progression into their takedown attempts. Hooker is a pressure fighter, constantly pushing towards his opponent behind his superior reach. Gamrot's lack of dangerous striking will encourage Hooker to march into him, leading to Gamrot being forced into the octagon side, where his shots will be both more predictable and telegraphed. Hooker has proven time and time again that his cardio is some of the best in the UFC, ensuring that he'll have the energy stores to explode up from the ground when he does eventually get taken down. In order to win this fight, Gamrot will have to be excellent defensively while landing takedown after takedown against an opponent who will not wilt or tire. Hooker will just have to land one good shot.

Final Prediction: Dan Hooker by KO, round 3